Russian military failures to date suggest a range of entrenched processes that defy change, to include influence activities. Still, it is highly unlikely Russian actors will significantly deviate from traditional methods and techniques as they are deeply ingrained and difficult to alter organizations and processes tend take on their own momentum and resist change. Future research and analysis of Russian influence activities may alter some of the points raised. Therefore, the depth of Russian attention and the levels of vitriol directed toward Ukraine likely exceed what other countries experience.įinally, the following discussion is a preliminary analysis of a war barely a few months old. Second, Ukraine is a special case where its ancient linguistic, cultural, and religious ties to Russia arguably surpass those of any others among the Slavic nationalities. All other targets are secondary and not necessarily to be persuaded but rather neutralized as impediments to achieving objectives. 1 A key point about Russian influence is the primary target is always the Russian population, both inside and outside of the Russian Federation. Analysis of a wide range of publications shows a consistent and predictable pattern that helps demystify Russian operations. First, Russia’s government employed a well-established methodology to set conditions. There are two aspects of prewar preparation that aid understanding of Russian influence in the current conflict. For simplicity and clarity, this article uses the general term influence activities to describe Russian efforts. Much of the literature this article cites includes terms like hybrid warfare, information warfare, information operations, political warfare, and equivalents for activities executed to affect and shape the behavior of individuals and groups. and allied military doctrine, academic publications, and journalists use a variety of labels for state-conducted influence efforts. Furthermore, a broad swath of academic and military literature published since the 2014 Russian takeover of Crimea and the proxy war in Donetsk and Luhansk describes in detail the specific activities and methods the Russian government would likely use.Ĭurrent U.S. The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was unsurprising to many longtime analysts and regional experts as the conflict fit a clear pattern with roots going back centuries. Maidan became a symbol of Ukraine’s defiance of Russian interference and domination. Security forces opened fire on the protesters, killing scores. In 2013–2014, protesters massed in Maidan against a Russian-sponsored dictatorship.
A Ukrainian mural in Kyiv’s Independence Square proclaims to the world in English a Ukrainian view on the country’s future.
0 kommentar(er)
